Transgender Identification Plummets Among U.S. College Students

Over the course of the last two years, the proportion of U.S. college students identifying as transgender has fallen sharply, according to a new report titled The Decline of Trans and Queer Identity among Young Americans.

Eric Kaufmann, a professor of politics at the University of Buckingham writing for the Centre for Heterodox Social Science, analyzed data from several surveys, including a major one by the Philadelphia-based Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE). The FIRE survey polled more than 50,000 undergraduates from over 250 American colleges.

Speaking to CBN News, Kaufmann noted that heterosexual identification among college students has increased compared to recent years. He described transgender and non-binary identities as closely related, differentiating them is “like splitting hairs.” These identities began rising around 2010, peaked in 2023 at nearly 7%, and have since dropped by about half to under 4%. Freshmen are significantly less likely to identify as transgender than seniors.

“If the youngest cohort represents the future, more than the seniors who are graduating, then yes, that would seem to indicate that these trends will continue,” he said. “I mean, are we going to return to where we were in 2010? We’re not near to that yet, but certainly the direction of travel is towards a decline.”

Campuses are experiencing a “vibe shift,” Kaufmann says.

“Much of this just seems to be about tastes and fashions, that these nonconforming gender and sexual identities are less fashionable, less cool, maybe among young people than they were a few years ago. That seems to be the story.”

He suggested that some young transgender adults experience genuine confusion, and improved mental health among youth may contribute to the decline.

The trend could lead to fewer gender-affirming surgeries and hormone treatments, which Kaufmann said can have lifelong consequences. “One of the hopes here is that the demand for those procedures will fall as this trend beds down,” he said.

“If this continues, we should see less chemical and physical transitioning—that would be a prediction.”

Critics acknowledge the data’s interest but note it lacks a definitive explanation for the drop.

Kaufmann’s announcement of the report on X (formerly Twitter) has garnered over 17 million views, drawing criticism from liberals who attribute the change to political factors like Trump-era legislation. Conservatives have also expressed concerns that positive trends might reduce urgency for reforms, such as policies on gender ideology in schools or parental notification requirements for student transitions.

“People on the left say, ‘Well, this is happening because of Trump and what’s been happening on legislation around trans,’” Kaufmann said, while noting pushback from both sides.

Kaufmann defended his findings, emphasizing the robustness of the analysis.

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